* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 52 49 50 40 34 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 36 40 42 38 39 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 37 39 39 38 35 28 23 20 18 20 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 30 35 42 48 62 73 72 60 47 29 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 7 0 5 9 -1 -2 0 10 4 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 244 245 243 238 237 246 261 253 261 247 238 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.6 27.4 26.1 26.1 23.0 15.1 3.7 11.9 12.8 10.5 8.8 9.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 150 135 121 122 100 77 69 70 69 67 65 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 143 129 117 119 97 74 N/A 68 67 65 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -50.1 -48.1 -47.2 -46.6 -45.1 -44.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.3 4.3 3.4 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 5 5 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 68 61 53 48 49 47 43 42 52 58 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 21 23 25 31 29 33 30 26 24 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 -2 4 24 70 111 143 150 197 224 254 279 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 128 86 84 86 58 97 30 45 65 68 63 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 38 36 26 27 -64 33 -24 -35 0 -39 -10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 189 29 -71 26 42 430 467 409 836 1222 1506 1264 1078 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.8 31.4 33.1 34.8 38.4 41.7 44.4 46.8 49.1 51.5 53.9 56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.2 84.2 82.2 79.0 75.9 67.3 58.0 49.0 41.8 36.3 32.2 29.3 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 24 28 31 35 39 37 32 25 19 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 20 CX,CY: 7/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -13. -27. -39. -47. -52. -54. -54. -62. -68. -71. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. -21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 13. 12. 17. 12. 7. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 7. 4. 5. -5. -11. -25. -37. -44. -45. -56. -63. -68. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.2 86.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/06/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 36 40 42 38 39 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 34 38 40 36 37 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 47 43 44 35 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 33 34 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT