* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 06/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 38 41 45 45 44 43 43 42 41 41 42 43 44 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 38 41 45 45 44 43 43 42 41 41 42 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 42 45 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 11 17 22 30 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -2 -1 -3 -1 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 291 273 268 288 315 315 329 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 25.9 25.4 24.2 23.4 23.8 23.9 22.7 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 112 108 100 95 98 99 93 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 95 92 86 83 87 88 83 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.5 -57.9 -57.9 -57.7 -58.2 -58.3 -58.4 -58.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 63 61 59 56 46 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -17 -7 9 8 37 44 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 23 17 22 13 -3 -26 -18 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 -11 0 5 -8 -2 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 102 202 302 428 532 666 838 1033 1200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 35.9 36.1 36.3 36.4 36.5 36.4 36.2 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.6 73.5 72.4 71.0 69.6 66.1 62.2 58.0 53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 11 13 15 16 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 2. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 15. 15. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 35.6 74.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 06/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.64 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.42 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 64.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.32 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 12.5% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 8.7% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 7.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 06/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 06/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 38 41 45 45 44 43 43 42 41 41 42 43 44 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 35 38 42 42 41 40 40 39 38 38 39 40 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 32 36 36 35 34 34 33 32 32 33 34 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 28 28 27 26 26 25 24 24 25 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT