* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 05/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 38 40 40 40 38 39 37 35 34 33 33 33 33 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 38 39 40 39 38 38 37 35 33 33 33 32 33 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 34 35 36 38 40 43 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 20 21 25 19 33 18 25 16 20 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -1 1 -6 -2 -6 -4 -4 -7 -1 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 179 172 169 162 170 177 186 197 196 244 229 279 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.4 25.3 24.9 24.7 24.4 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.8 24.3 23.6 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 116 105 101 99 97 96 93 91 93 96 92 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 98 88 85 83 82 81 79 77 79 81 78 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.8 -57.0 -56.7 -56.6 -57.0 -56.8 -57.1 -57.0 -57.3 -57.1 -57.2 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 6 4 8 5 8 4 6 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 56 61 61 58 54 52 52 53 52 53 53 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -24 -9 -5 5 16 7 -6 -9 -6 -15 -38 -37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 10 5 24 40 39 27 12 33 16 2 4 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 0 3 1 0 -5 0 -1 0 1 0 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 186 126 62 38 12 1 30 12 36 38 41 64 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.4 31.9 32.2 32.5 32.9 33.3 33.8 34.2 34.4 34.7 35.1 35.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.8 80.1 80.1 80.1 79.6 78.8 78.0 77.3 76.7 76.0 75.4 74.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.9 79.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.17 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.39 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.64 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.9 95.0 to 0.0 0.11 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 8.9% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.2% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 37 38 39 40 39 38 38 37 35 33 33 33 32 33 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 36 37 38 37 36 36 35 33 31 31 31 30 31 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 33 34 33 32 32 31 29 27 27 27 26 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 28 27 26 26 25 23 21 21 21 20 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT