* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022016 05/28/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 35 36 39 39 41 42 43 44 43 42 41 42 42 43 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 35 31 28 27 30 27 32 33 28 31 30 31 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 28 27 27 30 28 32 36 32 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 20 20 20 22 26 27 20 17 10 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -2 0 -9 -1 -10 -1 -9 -1 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 176 182 178 171 169 186 173 197 178 224 205 254 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.7 25.1 24.7 24.6 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.3 22.9 22.7 23.0 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 104 100 98 98 95 93 90 88 86 88 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 102 89 84 82 82 81 79 77 75 74 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.9 -56.9 -56.6 -56.8 -56.9 -56.9 -57.2 -57.2 -57.3 -57.1 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 5 4 6 4 7 5 7 4 5 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 56 62 59 56 54 51 53 50 51 51 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 11 9 10 10 10 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -23 -24 -15 -6 4 13 -16 -9 -19 -5 -36 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 24 24 1 19 40 34 0 21 18 5 -15 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 6 1 1 0 -3 1 -1 0 2 2 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 216 132 48 7 -21 -34 -29 11 -11 7 2 -2 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.4 32.0 32.4 32.7 33.0 33.3 33.6 34.0 34.4 34.7 34.9 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.6 80.2 80.4 80.6 80.3 79.6 78.8 78.1 77.5 76.9 76.4 75.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 4 3 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 6. 10. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 11. 12. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.8 79.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.21 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.35 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.47 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.34 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 7.7% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.8% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 TWO 05/28/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 35 31 28 27 30 27 32 33 28 31 30 31 31 32 18HR AGO 30 29 32 33 29 26 25 28 25 30 31 26 29 28 29 29 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 23 20 19 22 19 24 25 20 23 22 23 23 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT