* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/12/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 78 76 73 67 60 55 52 56 55 58 59 59 58 56 50 V (KT) LAND 80 79 78 76 73 67 60 55 52 56 55 58 59 59 58 56 50 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 78 76 73 67 61 55 50 48 47 48 51 54 56 57 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 15 17 17 20 17 11 7 5 9 8 5 9 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 4 4 6 7 7 7 2 -2 1 -5 -2 -2 -1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 214 211 206 199 194 178 172 193 201 189 166 159 160 161 136 198 199 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 148 148 149 148 148 149 150 149 151 152 157 153 150 153 156 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 48 51 52 51 51 51 58 61 65 64 61 62 63 57 61 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 21 21 21 18 18 17 19 17 19 21 22 22 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 124 140 148 157 165 163 171 167 154 144 131 119 107 134 99 95 79 200 MB DIV 22 0 -5 0 23 34 21 22 37 107 114 91 128 139 164 122 131 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2034 2091 2148 2102 2041 1941 1877 1830 1822 1833 1849 1886 1919 2294 2153 2248 2218 LAT (DEG N) 7.1 6.6 6.0 5.5 4.9 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.5 171.6 171.7 171.9 172.1 172.7 173.4 174.2 175.2 176.3 177.3 178.4 179.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 15 8 1 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 55 63 72 77 81 84 82 78 74 74 79 92 108 88 90 91 101 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -9. -4. 0. 4. 5. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -3. -5. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -16. -24. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -20. -25. -28. -24. -25. -22. -20. -21. -22. -24. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 7.1 171.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.21 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 526.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.26 -1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.69 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.73 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.67 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 23.6% 16.5% 16.4% 13.4% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.5% 19.6% 7.8% 6.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% 4.1% Bayesian: 3.9% 11.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 9.2% 18.3% 8.4% 7.6% 5.1% 5.2% 0.3% 1.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##