* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/12/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 75 73 71 66 57 52 47 46 50 50 52 52 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 75 76 75 73 71 66 57 52 47 46 50 50 52 52 53 52 49 V (KT) LGEM 75 76 75 73 70 64 58 53 48 44 43 44 46 50 52 54 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 13 15 15 20 18 13 7 3 4 6 7 6 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 4 2 4 8 9 9 2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 213 217 214 213 203 190 174 188 206 211 155 150 158 267 144 149 173 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.2 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 146 148 147 148 148 148 150 150 151 157 152 153 152 153 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.3 -51.0 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 47 49 48 49 49 51 57 63 64 64 65 67 58 63 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 21 21 22 19 19 18 17 20 20 21 23 23 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 113 123 143 150 157 166 166 173 166 154 141 137 130 149 114 102 103 200 MB DIV 36 16 -15 -18 -10 22 8 -4 23 52 80 110 119 156 145 136 110 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1984 2018 2052 2106 2142 2029 1952 1890 1846 1840 1856 1879 1923 2299 2065 2182 2272 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 7.4 6.9 6.4 5.8 4.8 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.7 171.6 171.5 171.5 171.6 172.2 172.9 173.6 174.6 175.6 176.8 177.9 179.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 15 6 3 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 46 50 58 66 75 81 81 79 74 72 75 85 102 85 96 86 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -4. 1. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -23. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -4. -9. -18. -23. -28. -29. -25. -25. -23. -23. -22. -23. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 7.8 171.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.38 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.30 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.18 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 534.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.25 -1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.62 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.69 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.0% 25.0% 20.9% 16.1% 14.3% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 12.2% 4.7% 3.8% 0.8% 1.1% 1.0% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 32.7% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 23.3% 9.9% 7.1% 5.2% 5.6% 0.3% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##