* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 79 79 77 69 62 54 47 46 45 43 44 43 45 46 42 V (KT) LAND 75 79 79 79 77 69 62 54 47 46 45 43 44 43 45 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 81 79 76 69 63 56 51 47 43 40 39 38 37 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 14 15 14 16 15 18 14 7 4 3 4 7 8 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 7 7 6 10 13 9 7 3 3 4 6 2 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 219 229 224 225 218 201 176 170 204 251 222 278 272 251 179 145 161 SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 145 147 150 151 153 153 153 153 152 153 156 158 157 158 156 157 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 47 47 45 46 46 44 45 50 53 54 56 56 57 62 67 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 21 21 20 20 18 16 17 17 17 18 18 21 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 104 111 123 136 145 157 165 174 170 168 160 143 142 146 107 111 114 200 MB DIV 50 44 20 -13 -14 12 32 18 22 61 66 66 74 101 116 158 157 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -4 -5 -5 -2 -2 -1 1 2 1 1 2 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1961 1982 2005 2051 2098 2085 1996 1933 1908 1899 1911 1953 2008 2054 1843 1854 1884 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.0 6.4 5.3 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.0 171.8 171.6 171.5 171.5 171.9 172.6 173.4 174.3 175.2 176.4 177.9 179.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 7 5 4 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 44 49 55 63 72 84 86 87 81 78 78 88 99 97 96 100 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 76/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -4. 0. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -14. -14. -12. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -24. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 4. 2. -6. -13. -21. -28. -29. -30. -32. -31. -32. -29. -29. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 8.3 172.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.40 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.22 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.27 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 579.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.20 -1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.77 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.59 2.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.53 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 44.7% 31.0% 30.8% 24.4% 21.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 27.4% 31.8% 17.4% 18.1% 4.0% 6.3% 2.8% 7.9% Bayesian: 5.0% 23.5% 3.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 25.7% 28.8% 17.3% 14.8% 8.5% 2.4% 1.0% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##