* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/10/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 29 29 33 36 36 36 37 40 41 41 41 39 37 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 29 29 33 36 36 36 37 40 41 41 41 39 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 29 28 28 29 30 30 29 28 28 28 27 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 15 14 10 16 14 16 15 13 3 2 15 12 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 1 2 -2 2 4 11 11 11 7 1 3 3 9 SHEAR DIR 107 110 124 126 141 156 127 166 172 160 160 163 18 319 357 356 41 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.0 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 142 143 143 147 149 151 150 149 151 152 154 160 156 156 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.6 -50.9 -51.9 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 53 55 57 58 56 50 49 46 42 41 40 46 53 62 73 65 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 21 20 18 18 18 17 16 16 17 17 17 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 167 157 147 125 106 95 88 119 144 163 162 171 174 158 153 152 157 200 MB DIV 33 26 14 21 33 31 28 8 -20 3 -1 4 24 44 113 103 100 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 2 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2192 2203 2214 2226 2238 2269 2311 2259 2187 2116 2025 1926 1828 1811 1620 1650 1641 LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.1 6.6 5.9 5.2 4.3 3.3 2.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 174.5 174.7 174.8 174.9 175.0 175.3 175.5 175.7 176.0 176.3 176.6 177.0 177.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 4 4 5 5 3 8 7 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 53 53 54 54 57 59 70 78 83 81 78 81 89 86 110 111 110 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 29. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -23. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 7.7 174.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 216.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 7.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 3.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 2.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##