* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/10/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 30 30 29 32 36 40 40 42 44 44 44 43 41 37 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 30 30 29 32 36 40 40 42 44 44 44 43 41 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 28 27 25 25 25 27 29 29 29 29 27 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 20 16 14 13 9 9 13 12 12 12 7 3 5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 4 1 -1 2 -1 -3 0 10 12 11 12 17 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 103 110 120 126 130 159 147 160 173 171 182 188 229 242 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 140 139 141 142 147 149 151 150 150 153 160 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 58 58 58 55 54 52 47 44 42 43 51 49 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 18 16 16 17 16 17 17 17 18 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 171 161 153 140 121 93 76 96 125 147 163 165 164 142 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 32 34 17 39 60 46 58 -1 21 28 27 5 41 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2184 2196 2207 2218 2230 2253 2285 2290 2229 2158 2077 1975 1878 1905 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.4 6.9 6.3 5.6 4.8 3.8 2.8 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.4 174.5 174.7 174.9 175.0 175.2 175.4 175.6 175.9 176.2 176.5 176.8 177.2 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 5 5 6 9 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 52 52 52 53 52 55 59 72 80 84 82 85 96 112 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -20. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -3. 1. 5. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 7.7 174.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.71 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.36 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.54 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.53 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.0% 11.9% 8.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 9.9% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 5.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 8.0% 4.5% 2.9% 2.1% 0.1% 0.8% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##