* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/09/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 51 49 48 46 45 41 41 40 38 37 33 30 33 33 30 V (KT) LAND 55 52 51 49 48 46 45 41 41 40 38 37 33 30 33 33 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 48 46 43 40 37 34 32 31 29 25 21 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 12 8 6 8 9 0 4 9 14 12 9 15 9 2 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 13 12 12 12 14 14 16 7 4 10 25 23 28 18 8 5 SHEAR DIR 120 127 142 152 136 145 302 185 167 178 193 195 207 173 65 26 26 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.7 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 143 142 140 140 141 141 142 145 147 153 158 159 159 160 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 59 54 53 54 62 60 58 56 48 42 40 43 57 62 70 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 27 27 26 26 26 26 23 23 21 20 20 19 16 17 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 227 226 208 188 170 153 121 86 95 115 142 152 153 159 154 147 137 200 MB DIV 158 117 87 63 44 25 19 37 44 38 -7 4 10 -1 12 57 82 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2086 2089 2094 2103 2113 2136 2159 2182 2205 2221 2261 2316 2282 1946 1866 1793 1750 LAT (DEG N) 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.8 173.1 173.4 173.7 174.0 174.4 174.7 174.9 175.1 175.2 175.4 175.6 175.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 2 3 12 14 4 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 58 54 48 45 43 40 39 42 44 46 55 66 74 104 121 122 115 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -9. -10. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -13. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -14. -14. -15. -17. -18. -22. -25. -22. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 7.5 172.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.57 7.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.39 4.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.71 7.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.92 8.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.52 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.51 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.75 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.9% 40.9% 38.1% 26.2% 22.7% 28.3% 17.5% 13.1% Logistic: 0.3% 2.5% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 14.5% 13.0% 8.9% 7.6% 9.5% 5.8% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##