* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 82 70 59 49 33 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 82 70 59 49 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 83 70 59 49 35 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 37 40 43 44 54 74 84 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 22 10 3 0 0 2 -2 -9 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 248 256 249 240 230 238 246 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.5 26.9 25.4 24.9 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 145 144 139 133 117 111 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 4 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 59 55 49 36 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 18 15 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -1 -12 -14 -6 12 23 19 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 58 52 55 76 75 31 -4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 26 29 17 10 4 12 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 451 393 300 210 135 67 -90 -231 -384 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.3 22.2 24.2 25.8 27.3 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.4 109.2 109.0 108.8 108.3 107.6 107.1 106.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 13 14 19 15 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 11 CX,CY: 2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -20. -26. -30. -34. -36. -37. -39. -40. -43. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -17. -23. -31. -38. -45. -57. -64. -71. -78. -85. -93. -98.-100. -99. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -23. -23. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -25. -36. -46. -62. -77. -90.-106.-116.-125.-132.-139.-148.-156.-161.-164. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.5 109.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 352.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##