* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 130 127 117 104 78 52 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 125 130 127 117 104 78 52 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 125 126 118 106 93 69 46 31 21 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 14 21 29 32 43 50 68 80 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 17 25 23 13 13 1 -1 -1 -3 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 182 231 233 240 254 253 245 236 238 255 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.1 25.9 25.1 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 153 152 151 147 143 135 122 114 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -53.0 -53.4 -54.2 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 5 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 66 63 59 59 56 52 40 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 21 21 19 13 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 14 10 9 12 18 5 26 44 28 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 162 158 128 77 58 61 73 77 23 -14 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 9 19 23 22 25 26 14 12 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 815 770 733 676 595 390 183 75 -19 -219 -399 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 15.0 15.8 16.7 17.6 19.4 21.3 23.1 25.0 27.0 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.3 110.6 110.8 110.8 110.8 110.3 109.6 108.7 107.9 107.1 106.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 23 24 23 21 14 11 7 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -22. -33. -42. -51. -58. -62. -62. -63. -64. -67. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -7. -12. -20. -24. -25. -27. -32. -43. -49. -55. -61. -65. -61. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 10. 9. 5. 1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -13. -26. -30. -30. -30. -28. -26. -23. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 2. -8. -21. -47. -73. -97.-109.-121.-138.-146.-153.-159.-164.-164.-162. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 14.1 110.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.83 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 382.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.6% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 41.2% 10.3% 6.8% 6.0% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 36.6% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 37.1% 10.7% 2.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##