* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SANDRA EP222015 11/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 102 105 104 101 87 76 62 44 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 102 105 104 101 87 76 62 44 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 101 102 100 95 81 64 47 31 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 6 11 13 22 31 40 53 71 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 6 10 20 16 6 5 3 -5 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 163 146 239 241 254 248 255 240 236 239 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.1 27.5 26.2 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 157 158 154 149 145 139 126 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 7 5 4 5 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 74 71 69 66 62 62 57 47 33 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 25 24 25 22 22 18 11 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 29 19 19 13 30 16 16 11 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 150 173 165 143 101 63 60 91 70 2 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 3 6 5 12 20 25 33 14 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 895 859 830 783 742 596 392 178 65 -67 -303 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.4 14.1 15.0 15.8 17.6 19.4 21.3 23.1 24.9 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.1 110.5 110.7 110.9 110.9 110.5 109.9 108.8 107.2 105.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 27 23 27 29 23 16 13 11 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -5. -11. -15. -20. -24. -25. -25. -25. -26. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -21. -32. -35. -39. -42. -44. -44. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -2. -2. -8. -19. -31. -30. -29. -26. -24. -21. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 9. 6. -8. -19. -33. -51. -74. -88. -92. -94. -98.-101.-103.-104. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 12.7 109.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.31 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.67 11.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.60 8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 146.4 -30.0 to 145.0 1.00 13.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 -7.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.84 8.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.30 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 59% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 59.4% 56.3% 50.1% 42.3% 33.8% 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 31.6% 34.4% 26.1% 20.3% 1.6% 9.9% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 50.6% 70.5% 81.1% 66.1% 3.5% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 47.2% 53.7% 52.4% 42.9% 13.0% 11.8% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222015 SANDRA 11/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##