* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/22/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 30 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 29 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 23 29 33 39 45 49 53 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 -1 -2 0 0 -5 -12 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 238 242 243 241 248 240 241 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.6 26.9 26.1 25.5 24.8 24.4 24.0 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 140 132 124 117 109 103 99 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.6 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 50 51 49 43 37 33 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 24 24 21 2 -12 -10 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 35 32 19 19 3 -15 -8 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 4 6 3 4 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 952 980 989 982 983 980 965 930 904 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.4 19.0 20.0 20.7 21.2 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.4 118.2 118.9 119.5 120.3 120.6 120.7 120.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 7 5 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 9 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 789 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -9. -19. -32. -42. -49. -52. -54. -55. -57. -62. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -28. -43. -52. -59. -64. -66. -70. -73. -79. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.9 116.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.38 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##