* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 41 40 37 30 22 21 21 21 22 20 20 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 38 39 41 40 37 30 22 21 21 21 22 20 20 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 37 35 32 28 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 1 3 8 12 14 24 28 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 3 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 125 122 223 241 252 234 246 244 247 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.8 27.4 27.1 26.4 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 160 158 154 147 140 136 133 126 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 56 55 55 54 50 50 53 56 52 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 22 26 22 17 21 17 20 8 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 18 19 28 28 23 21 15 27 12 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 1 3 0 2 3 5 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 553 573 608 652 699 671 659 639 618 544 474 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.3 17.9 18.7 19.6 20.7 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.6 109.4 110.2 111.0 112.4 113.4 114.2 114.8 115.2 115.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 35 37 35 28 21 14 9 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 24. 24. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -1. -7. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. -5. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -15. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 107.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.89 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.83 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.31 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.69 -4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.36 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.34 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 26.6% 19.7% 19.6% 0.0% 19.4% 15.6% 12.6% Logistic: 4.5% 12.3% 10.3% 3.6% 1.0% 2.9% 1.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 13.5% 10.0% 7.8% 0.3% 7.4% 5.7% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##