* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212015 11/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 42 44 46 45 42 38 31 27 23 23 24 22 23 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 42 44 46 45 42 38 31 27 23 23 24 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 42 41 38 33 29 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 3 3 10 13 17 22 31 38 38 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 -1 0 4 3 2 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 121 137 138 164 250 259 252 252 252 256 252 240 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 28.8 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.7 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 159 158 158 158 151 144 140 139 137 128 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 61 62 60 58 58 67 70 67 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 16 19 9 7 11 10 22 18 18 7 -2 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 54 27 23 17 0 7 15 18 34 34 9 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 -1 -2 2 0 0 1 5 11 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 511 508 512 513 529 606 624 591 561 524 481 408 317 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.7 17.4 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.4 21.4 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.3 106.9 107.7 108.4 110.0 111.2 112.2 113.0 113.5 113.8 113.8 113.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 50 41 32 34 37 26 19 14 13 11 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -18. -19. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 10. 7. 3. -4. -8. -12. -12. -11. -13. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 105.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/19/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.89 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.71 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.74 -6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.41 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.83 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 41.5% 30.8% 22.6% 16.1% 29.5% 31.2% 21.5% Logistic: 15.0% 48.3% 38.3% 20.7% 15.4% 24.1% 19.5% 11.5% Bayesian: 3.1% 17.4% 3.2% 0.7% 0.5% 3.6% 5.2% 0.6% Consensus: 11.1% 35.7% 24.1% 14.6% 10.7% 19.1% 18.7% 11.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##