* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212015 11/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 33 36 39 40 41 37 34 32 28 29 30 29 29 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 33 36 39 40 41 37 34 32 28 29 30 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 33 33 31 28 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 12 9 6 4 4 10 16 17 26 29 31 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 0 2 0 0 5 1 6 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 107 107 99 101 113 260 253 268 260 262 250 249 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 161 161 159 159 158 152 148 142 139 139 136 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 63 61 60 61 60 65 70 71 65 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 17 16 20 14 15 20 20 18 5 -5 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 63 53 25 20 15 13 28 31 41 43 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 -2 0 1 0 0 -4 -5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 604 597 596 598 608 668 722 663 623 576 523 460 383 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.7 20.6 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.6 107.1 107.9 108.7 110.1 111.2 112.2 112.9 113.4 113.7 113.7 113.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 65 60 37 35 34 27 22 16 13 12 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -12. -13. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 7. 4. 2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 106.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/19/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.95 8.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.46 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.44 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.76 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.40 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.51 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.84 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 21.7% 21.3% 17.2% 0.0% 19.4% 17.7% 22.5% Logistic: 2.3% 22.7% 11.8% 5.3% 4.1% 13.1% 8.1% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% Consensus: 4.3% 15.2% 11.1% 7.5% 1.4% 10.9% 8.9% 9.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##