* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212015 11/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 35 36 41 45 46 46 43 38 33 26 26 26 26 27 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 35 36 41 45 46 46 43 38 33 26 26 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 35 32 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 8 5 5 2 6 12 14 24 31 44 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -1 1 2 1 2 1 3 6 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 84 95 88 79 94 233 258 255 258 253 243 243 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.3 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.5 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 159 158 155 150 146 140 136 130 126 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.7 -53.4 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 63 62 62 60 60 59 60 66 67 58 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 36 34 31 26 24 20 19 24 13 23 13 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 73 66 53 27 26 31 20 44 32 49 30 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 2 -2 -2 -2 5 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 695 681 670 670 669 724 809 771 761 746 715 662 599 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.0 107.3 108.0 108.7 110.2 111.7 113.1 114.2 114.9 115.4 115.8 116.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 70 73 49 37 31 24 20 13 7 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -8. -14. -14. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 11. 15. 16. 16. 13. 8. 3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 106.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/19/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.95 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.47 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.54 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.75 -4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.60 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.80 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 25.9% 18.3% 18.1% 0.0% 20.5% 25.0% 30.7% Logistic: 0.4% 4.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 5.7% 11.3% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 3.7% 11.3% 7.2% 6.4% 0.1% 8.7% 12.1% 12.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##