* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212015 11/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 59 63 64 62 58 53 48 47 47 46 46 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 59 63 64 62 58 53 48 47 47 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 45 50 54 54 51 46 40 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 8 5 3 4 2 6 13 23 36 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 3 4 9 5 4 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 68 67 83 84 72 74 349 312 274 272 263 252 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 160 160 160 158 152 149 145 141 137 137 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 64 64 60 60 60 62 67 70 69 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 44 38 36 29 24 11 13 4 5 11 8 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 117 113 96 91 70 46 31 16 25 32 53 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 0 -7 -7 -7 0 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 726 708 691 682 670 676 755 801 782 723 650 561 489 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.0 15.0 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.4 18.4 19.6 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.1 107.2 107.6 107.9 109.4 110.9 112.2 113.1 113.7 114.0 114.1 114.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 7 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 69 72 67 52 35 27 23 20 15 8 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 35. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 29. 33. 34. 32. 28. 23. 18. 17. 17. 16. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 107.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/18/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.95 9.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.49 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.73 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.35 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.67 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.66 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 28.2% 26.9% 21.2% 0.0% 33.8% 40.3% 52.6% Logistic: 1.7% 12.4% 7.5% 3.2% 1.7% 20.4% 52.1% 25.9% Bayesian: 1.6% 11.5% 9.4% 3.4% 0.8% 1.9% 3.0% 6.3% Consensus: 5.5% 17.4% 14.6% 9.3% 0.8% 18.7% 31.8% 28.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 TWENTYONE 11/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##