* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/11/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 70 75 81 80 71 62 54 44 41 39 32 27 22 17 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 70 75 81 80 71 62 54 44 41 39 32 27 22 17 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 65 68 70 66 53 46 45 47 49 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 32 34 32 45 46 42 38 32 40 46 37 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 5 15 15 3 1 0 0 8 13 15 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 263 267 269 273 273 255 265 242 234 238 239 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.4 23.9 24.0 23.7 20.8 8.7 19.4 18.0 13.8 10.8 9.8 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 107 104 105 101 84 64 79 77 72 71 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 103 98 99 93 76 63 72 72 70 69 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -56.2 -58.0 -58.0 -57.3 -56.0 -55.2 -53.5 -50.2 -47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 -0.7 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 59 63 64 68 51 42 52 51 48 47 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 17 22 27 31 30 25 22 21 20 25 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 80 110 129 141 198 203 181 149 144 158 199 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 120 132 149 114 88 31 15 34 5 10 16 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 37 65 158 169 133 -1 -22 -11 0 1 -24 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 495 726 785 778 778 614 555 668 927 1300 1319 878 731 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.1 34.6 36.1 37.5 38.9 41.2 42.5 43.2 44.7 47.3 51.0 55.9 60.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.3 67.8 64.4 60.8 57.1 52.3 49.3 46.2 41.5 35.5 29.3 23.3 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 32 32 32 27 17 12 15 21 26 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 28 CX,CY: 21/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -17. -21. -24. -28. -31. -34. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -19. -23. -26. -30. -35. -37. -43. -47. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 17. 17. 16. 13. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 14. 10. 9. 7. 13. 15. 14. 13. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 21. 20. 11. 2. -6. -16. -19. -21. -28. -33. -38. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 33.1 71.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 261.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 119.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/11/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 5( 7) 8( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 65 70 75 81 80 71 62 54 44 41 39 32 27 22 17 18HR AGO 60 59 62 67 72 78 77 68 59 51 41 38 36 29 24 19 DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 61 66 72 71 62 53 45 35 32 30 23 18 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 55 61 60 51 42 34 24 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT