* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 30 25 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 30 25 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 30 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 28 20 18 20 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 22 17 12 8 1 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 307 309 289 282 289 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.5 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.6 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 106 102 103 105 107 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.8 -49.6 -49.7 -50.0 -50.6 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 33 28 23 21 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 36 16 -12 -43 -63 -74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -4 -6 -10 -12 -19 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 1 -5 -6 -5 -10 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1711 1641 1571 1585 1598 1749 1901 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.7 26.9 26.7 26.5 25.8 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.5 134.8 134.1 134.1 134.1 135.4 136.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 3 2 4 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -10. -15. -19. -21. -22. -23. -25. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 8. 7. 4. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -18. -24. -31. -37. -40. -43. -47. -51. -54. -60. -64. -69. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.5 135.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 30.0 to 135.0 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.98 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##