* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 37 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 44 37 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 39 34 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 23 27 26 24 16 17 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 13 19 25 18 9 -1 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 266 283 299 319 308 309 301 327 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.8 23.6 24.0 24.6 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 110 106 102 100 96 100 107 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 -50.3 -50.9 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 39 38 33 24 20 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 19 18 17 14 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 16 21 35 33 -2 -28 -50 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 11 -7 1 -2 -18 -39 -31 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 6 3 -7 -10 -11 -12 -9 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1696 1818 1868 1744 1621 1484 1530 1671 1828 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.5 26.8 25.9 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 139.5 138.5 137.4 136.3 135.1 133.5 133.5 134.5 135.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 9 4 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 13 CX,CY: 11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -17. -18. -19. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -22. -22. -22. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -26. -36. -45. -49. -53. -55. -57. -60. -63. -67. -71. -76. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.3 139.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.25 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.0 to -2.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##