* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 70 67 64 52 40 34 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 76 70 67 64 52 40 34 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 72 67 61 49 38 30 23 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 20 27 26 19 20 24 13 17 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 8 7 5 15 14 3 -1 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 265 245 248 236 277 331 290 289 280 300 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.7 25.3 24.2 23.7 23.2 23.5 24.3 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 123 122 118 106 99 92 96 105 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -50.4 -49.9 -49.6 -50.5 -51.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 3 2 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 54 51 47 43 42 31 23 18 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 23 25 26 22 21 20 18 14 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 23 34 20 48 43 34 1 -82 -88 -64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 75 89 66 34 -20 -10 -18 -29 -26 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 22 21 20 12 0 -1 -17 -4 -5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1204 1299 1397 1532 1668 1762 1497 1399 1410 1588 1773 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 22.8 23.6 24.5 25.3 27.0 28.2 28.6 27.9 26.3 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.5 142.8 142.0 140.9 139.8 137.2 134.8 133.3 132.9 133.8 134.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 13 14 13 9 4 6 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -20. -25. -29. -31. -34. -37. -40. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -23. -22. -20. -18. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -13. -16. -28. -40. -46. -52. -58. -67. -70. -73. -78. -83. -88. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.0 143.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.7 30.0 to 135.0 0.11 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 519.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##