* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/25/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 76 67 59 53 42 37 28 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 76 67 59 53 42 37 28 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 76 67 59 52 41 32 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 22 20 21 22 29 17 21 10 13 14 12 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 14 13 11 15 16 16 0 -4 -6 -7 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 270 275 275 278 266 252 264 314 328 281 301 302 254 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.9 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 123 120 120 122 118 114 109 110 110 110 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -50.7 -50.0 -50.1 -50.8 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.7 -0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 47 51 53 49 45 40 30 26 26 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 27 24 24 22 21 17 14 11 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 42 16 6 5 26 14 -17 -48 -60 -79 -88 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -18 -25 2 43 50 -18 -28 -19 -18 -19 -22 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 22 18 19 17 10 14 -5 -6 -1 -6 -12 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1079 1121 1166 1224 1284 1452 1632 1775 1824 1767 1681 1579 1475 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.8 24.1 25.1 25.9 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.5 144.2 143.8 143.4 142.9 141.6 140.1 138.9 138.6 139.3 140.3 141.5 142.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 7 5 2 4 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -34. -36. -38. -41. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -3. -3. -5. -7. -14. -20. -24. -27. -28. -26. -23. -21. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -26. -32. -43. -48. -57. -63. -66. -71. -73. -72. -75. -77. -80. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.4 144.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.14 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 557.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 34.4 to 2.3 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##