* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/24/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 86 78 70 63 52 45 39 36 28 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 V (KT) LAND 95 86 78 70 63 52 45 39 36 28 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 95 87 79 71 64 51 43 35 28 23 19 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 28 22 17 14 21 18 14 6 4 9 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 5 13 15 11 12 14 14 0 -6 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 271 269 261 267 250 255 256 324 222 266 226 251 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.3 26.0 25.8 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.5 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 129 125 122 120 121 119 116 114 114 117 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -50.4 -50.6 -51.0 -51.6 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 44 47 48 51 44 41 35 29 29 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 29 28 27 24 25 21 20 15 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 47 48 41 18 15 24 18 17 -22 -36 -41 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -17 -21 -21 7 65 -1 -11 -33 -6 -13 -4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 25 16 17 20 13 7 2 -4 -2 9 13 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1004 1046 1091 1138 1188 1292 1429 1553 1622 1642 1562 1391 1228 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.7 23.7 24.5 25.1 25.6 25.9 25.9 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.2 144.8 144.4 144.0 143.6 142.8 141.7 140.7 140.2 140.2 141.2 143.1 145.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 5 3 3 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -17. -24. -29. -34. -38. -42. -44. -46. -48. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -10. -11. -13. -12. -10. -8. -5. -5. -4. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -12. -16. -23. -27. -27. -26. -24. -21. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -25. -32. -43. -50. -56. -59. -67. -70. -71. -71. -72. -73. -74. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.5 145.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 673.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/24/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##