* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 96 91 86 69 58 53 48 44 34 25 18 18 18 18 18 V (KT) LAND 100 99 96 91 86 69 58 53 48 44 34 25 18 18 18 18 18 V (KT) LGEM 100 98 94 89 82 69 57 48 41 35 28 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 18 24 21 18 16 24 27 25 16 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 1 0 5 4 5 5 14 8 18 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 223 226 235 247 255 248 255 242 245 262 335 338 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.5 24.8 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 141 140 138 134 134 130 129 126 119 111 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -50.5 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 52 49 44 46 47 49 52 44 42 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 30 32 29 26 26 24 24 18 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 90 95 96 90 76 60 44 10 -11 1 -2 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 100 88 91 61 -7 -10 22 41 27 -12 -35 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 5 5 9 14 12 14 12 12 6 -12 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1048 1014 985 968 956 979 1066 1176 1328 1529 1743 1849 1609 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.8 17.4 18.7 19.8 20.9 22.1 23.4 24.7 26.0 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.3 146.3 146.2 146.1 146.0 145.5 144.6 143.6 142.3 140.6 138.8 136.8 134.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 20 21 19 17 10 8 4 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -21. -27. -32. -36. -40. -42. -44. -46. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -11. -9. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. -2. -5. -6. -9. -10. -18. -22. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -9. -14. -31. -42. -47. -52. -55. -66. -75. -82. -82. -82. -82. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.7 146.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.10 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.09 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.67 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 657.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.10 -0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 22.1% 17.2% 12.7% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 8.0% 6.0% 4.5% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##