* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 91 89 85 80 65 57 53 47 44 40 30 22 21 20 21 21 V (KT) LAND 95 91 89 85 80 65 57 53 47 44 40 30 22 21 20 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 95 91 87 83 77 65 54 46 40 36 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 18 23 27 18 17 22 36 39 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 3 4 2 1 8 6 3 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 217 232 231 230 245 258 257 251 243 243 282 326 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.6 26.4 25.7 25.3 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 143 141 136 133 134 129 128 121 117 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 58 55 52 51 46 46 51 54 59 49 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 30 31 31 28 27 27 24 25 24 19 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 78 81 94 96 74 49 37 15 1 -1 3 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 77 94 82 94 11 -35 -8 26 29 36 -15 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 8 7 4 9 12 12 15 11 12 4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1084 1033 985 954 929 934 984 1079 1227 1414 1627 1869 1720 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.8 15.5 16.3 17.0 18.3 19.4 20.5 21.6 22.8 24.1 25.3 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.3 146.4 146.5 146.5 146.4 146.0 145.4 144.5 143.2 141.6 139.8 137.7 135.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 8 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 22 24 25 23 16 10 8 4 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. -36. -37. -38. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -6. -8. -13. -13. -10. -9. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -8. -9. -15. -19. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -10. -15. -30. -38. -42. -48. -51. -55. -65. -73. -74. -75. -74. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 14.1 146.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.17 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.06 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.67 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 516.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.28 -1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.51 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 16.8% 16.0% 12.3% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 6.0% 5.4% 4.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##