* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 92 91 89 87 77 69 61 59 52 51 44 35 34 34 34 33 V (KT) LAND 95 92 91 89 87 77 69 61 59 52 51 44 35 34 34 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 95 91 87 84 80 70 61 53 47 42 37 32 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 5 7 10 11 21 19 17 13 25 34 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 1 3 3 5 4 11 3 7 4 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 239 218 229 243 240 257 260 254 238 242 251 314 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.7 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 143 138 135 133 131 129 126 120 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 59 54 51 50 45 47 50 53 57 51 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 33 34 34 32 31 28 29 25 27 23 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 99 99 95 101 97 76 63 46 16 4 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 97 92 78 84 70 6 -7 7 30 26 -21 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 5 5 6 10 19 13 13 7 8 -5 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1124 1063 1005 959 918 893 924 1004 1104 1251 1426 1627 1830 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.8 19.0 20.0 20.9 21.8 22.9 24.1 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.3 146.5 146.7 146.8 146.8 146.5 146.0 145.2 144.3 143.0 141.5 139.8 138.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 24 25 22 14 8 5 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -10. -16. -21. -26. -29. -32. -34. -35. -36. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -0. -1. -5. -5. -10. -7. -12. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -8. -18. -26. -34. -36. -43. -44. -51. -60. -61. -61. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 13.5 146.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.59 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.68 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 544.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.24 -1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.40 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.21 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.82 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 21.1% 20.6% 16.3% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 7.7% 7.2% 5.7% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##