* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 91 101 109 113 115 95 80 60 50 42 37 34 30 27 23 20 V (KT) LAND 80 91 101 109 113 115 63 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 92 101 107 109 104 59 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 12 13 9 19 24 36 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -5 -3 2 4 5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 204 195 182 178 183 186 219 228 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.7 29.2 28.6 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 167 165 167 172 158 152 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.4 -50.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.1 -50.6 -50.1 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 8 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 75 72 69 63 56 54 54 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 27 27 26 22 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 44 55 62 67 80 97 97 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 135 128 114 100 109 100 92 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 1 0 -9 -1 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 369 323 305 268 226 52 -91 -335 -377 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.7 17.4 19.3 21.5 23.9 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.2 104.1 104.9 105.3 105.7 105.5 104.4 102.8 101.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 9 8 9 10 13 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 63 56 56 63 64 24 19 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. -15. -19. -22. -22. -22. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 21. 29. 33. 36. 15. -0. -20. -30. -38. -43. -46. -50. -53. -57. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 14.7 103.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.55 13.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.75 18.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.47 9.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.83 16.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -11.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.64 11.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 12.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.64 5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 5.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.61 1.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 84% is 13.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 88% is 7.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 79% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 64% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 84.5% 88.2% 81.9% 78.8% 67.7% 63.9% 31.3% 0.0% Logistic: 73.8% 84.8% 76.0% 71.3% 79.6% 50.6% 8.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 90.9% 87.4% 95.5% 96.0% 91.2% 65.7% 3.7% 0.0% Consensus: 83.1% 86.8% 84.5% 82.0% 79.5% 60.1% 14.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##