* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 98 95 92 83 74 66 62 56 52 45 37 36 36 36 35 V (KT) LAND 100 99 98 95 92 83 74 66 62 56 52 45 37 36 36 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 100 97 94 90 86 75 64 56 49 44 39 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 10 11 12 14 19 18 18 17 21 30 33 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 2 3 4 6 5 9 13 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 197 223 237 229 235 244 240 248 255 233 244 235 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.0 25.8 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 144 140 137 133 130 128 124 122 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -50.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 61 56 51 51 51 46 45 49 51 51 51 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 34 33 33 34 32 29 28 27 27 24 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 93 93 89 84 87 87 55 53 22 -9 -26 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 117 96 95 68 74 70 66 -7 -9 32 8 -3 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 7 6 6 7 10 13 12 13 14 10 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1161 1092 1024 967 913 851 847 878 969 1109 1303 1533 1779 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.9 14.5 15.2 15.8 17.2 18.5 19.7 20.8 21.8 23.1 24.5 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.1 146.4 146.7 146.9 147.1 147.1 146.8 146.4 145.6 144.4 142.8 140.9 138.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 9 10 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 23 24 24 24 11 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -19. -25. -30. -34. -37. -39. -40. -41. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -8. -17. -26. -34. -38. -44. -48. -55. -63. -64. -64. -64. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 13.2 146.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.13 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.43 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.69 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 542.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.24 -1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.37 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.6% 19.7% 19.2% 15.2% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 3.5% 1.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 7.9% 6.9% 5.5% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##