* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 102 100 100 98 92 87 80 73 67 64 56 56 54 53 52 51 V (KT) LAND 105 102 100 100 98 92 87 80 73 67 64 56 56 54 53 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 105 100 96 93 90 84 78 68 58 50 44 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 8 7 9 16 24 23 23 28 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -3 -1 0 2 7 8 6 4 3 12 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 188 165 176 197 211 232 223 241 247 253 238 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.1 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 146 146 145 140 137 134 131 128 124 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.3 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 68 64 59 52 53 50 50 53 53 56 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 32 34 34 33 35 33 31 30 30 27 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 83 95 100 102 95 87 82 70 61 25 35 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 119 134 97 109 86 85 90 73 26 -5 27 25 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 3 4 3 6 7 11 12 19 12 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1363 1278 1194 1126 1060 947 869 845 889 1006 1127 1268 1416 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.2 15.5 17.0 18.6 20.0 21.2 22.5 23.8 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.7 145.3 145.8 146.2 146.5 146.9 147.0 146.8 146.3 145.3 144.4 143.4 142.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 25 24 24 25 27 25 24 10 5 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -13. -21. -27. -32. -36. -39. -41. -42. -43. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -7. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -7. -13. -18. -25. -32. -38. -41. -49. -49. -51. -52. -53. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 12.0 144.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.12 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 17.2 to 1.6 0.66 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.79 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.48 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.83 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.24 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.40 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 19.7% 18.6% 14.6% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 9.6% 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 10.0% 7.4% 5.7% 4.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##