* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 97 97 97 93 91 88 83 73 68 66 62 61 60 59 56 V (KT) LAND 105 100 97 97 97 93 91 88 83 73 68 66 62 61 60 59 56 V (KT) LGEM 105 97 92 89 86 83 80 74 66 58 52 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 8 7 6 11 17 25 24 23 19 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 -2 0 0 8 8 7 5 6 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 237 206 185 183 204 219 215 231 255 264 253 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 147 146 146 142 138 135 132 129 126 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.2 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 67 62 54 52 51 47 48 48 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 32 31 33 33 34 36 34 33 29 28 27 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 77 78 92 104 97 89 83 80 58 42 9 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 97 118 124 78 93 91 86 97 31 -17 -10 26 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 9 6 3 2 4 5 7 11 17 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1433 1344 1255 1176 1097 973 875 824 847 926 1041 1169 1311 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.2 12.7 13.3 13.9 15.2 16.6 18.1 19.5 20.7 21.9 23.2 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.2 144.8 145.4 145.9 146.3 146.8 147.1 147.1 146.7 146.0 145.1 144.2 143.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 25 25 24 25 27 26 28 13 7 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -6. -13. -20. -26. -32. -36. -39. -40. -41. -42. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 5. 4. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -8. -8. -12. -14. -17. -22. -32. -37. -39. -43. -44. -45. -46. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 11.6 144.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.13 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 17.2 to 1.6 0.71 4.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.75 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.24 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.23 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 17.7% 16.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 8.0% 6.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##