* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/19/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 95 99 105 112 116 116 114 108 100 97 90 86 83 80 78 V (KT) LAND 85 89 95 99 105 112 116 116 114 108 100 97 90 86 83 80 78 V (KT) LGEM 85 90 93 95 98 104 113 116 116 113 107 97 88 82 79 80 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 7 3 3 2 3 4 5 7 10 16 13 13 15 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 2 5 4 2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 336 327 317 324 313 283 113 143 163 214 197 216 234 250 236 232 239 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 157 157 157 156 151 149 149 143 137 135 135 133 133 131 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 75 76 77 77 73 71 66 56 54 51 56 59 58 55 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 27 28 31 33 35 37 37 34 37 35 35 35 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 33 42 53 60 66 61 88 90 115 120 115 102 100 94 93 85 70 200 MB DIV 102 96 98 119 99 79 82 94 74 90 77 68 71 36 33 20 2 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 1 3 4 5 5 8 9 8 6 4 9 LAND (KM) 2290 2194 2098 2004 1910 1724 1551 1387 1232 1120 1030 999 982 985 983 993 996 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.0 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.5 12.4 13.3 14.4 15.5 16.7 17.7 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.0 136.9 137.8 138.7 139.5 141.0 142.3 143.5 144.5 145.1 145.5 145.5 145.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 2 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 22 23 27 28 22 22 23 32 27 18 16 15 13 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 15. 19. 19. 15. 18. 13. 13. 11. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 14. 20. 27. 31. 31. 29. 23. 15. 13. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 9.8 136.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.9 30.0 to 135.0 0.41 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.70 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.76 6.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.70 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.0 to -2.0 0.33 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.4% 37.2% 28.6% 23.0% 16.0% 20.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.0% 55.4% 33.3% 22.3% 11.8% 10.7% 5.6% 2.5% Bayesian: 27.2% 69.5% 72.3% 54.6% 18.2% 50.3% 12.6% 0.2% Consensus: 21.9% 54.1% 44.7% 33.3% 15.4% 27.2% 6.1% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##