* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/17/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 59 65 72 84 95 100 101 101 99 94 90 86 85 84 82 V (KT) LAND 50 54 59 65 72 84 95 100 101 101 99 94 90 86 85 84 82 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 61 66 77 88 100 108 109 104 100 96 91 86 83 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 12 11 12 11 7 2 3 7 5 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -2 0 1 0 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 340 348 349 356 349 10 8 207 165 186 197 206 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.4 29.3 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.4 27.7 27.3 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 155 154 158 157 160 156 155 154 152 151 147 140 136 130 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 68 68 69 70 72 73 71 67 67 63 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 23 26 28 32 33 34 35 36 36 36 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 13 16 23 35 49 48 57 72 90 102 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 94 96 105 124 160 130 66 71 88 78 72 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -5 -5 -6 -10 -5 2 6 7 8 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2558 2617 2678 2634 2540 2354 2153 1961 1780 1615 1477 1385 1363 1402 1475 1559 1664 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.4 11.1 12.0 12.9 13.9 15.0 16.1 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.9 131.7 132.5 133.4 135.0 136.7 138.2 139.6 140.8 141.7 142.2 142.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 23 21 20 26 17 20 20 22 23 23 28 32 18 10 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 12. 17. 20. 23. 23. 21. 20. 17. 15. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 34. 45. 50. 51. 51. 49. 44. 40. 36. 35. 34. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.2 130.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.73 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.36 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.73 6.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.73 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.46 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.58 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 45% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 35.4% 28.9% 22.1% 15.0% 40.4% 44.8% 46.7% Logistic: 7.3% 39.6% 18.2% 10.4% 6.2% 17.2% 34.6% 28.7% Bayesian: 2.0% 16.9% 13.3% 2.8% 0.2% 6.9% 10.1% 22.7% Consensus: 8.0% 30.6% 20.1% 11.8% 7.2% 21.5% 29.8% 32.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##