* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/15/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 37 41 47 60 72 85 94 101 104 104 104 98 93 90 83 V (KT) LAND 30 32 37 41 47 60 72 85 94 101 104 104 104 98 93 90 83 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 40 50 61 71 78 85 94 99 101 97 90 82 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 5 9 10 8 6 7 5 2 4 8 12 15 20 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -2 -1 0 0 1 -2 -4 -5 -3 -4 -1 1 5 8 SHEAR DIR 46 95 74 22 14 348 342 337 349 356 310 190 183 207 219 226 238 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.2 28.9 28.6 27.8 27.3 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 163 161 158 155 155 152 151 151 153 156 153 150 141 135 133 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 67 68 68 69 73 72 72 69 65 59 58 54 48 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 16 16 18 21 24 28 30 34 35 37 40 38 38 38 35 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 14 15 17 24 27 33 43 65 68 75 75 99 107 123 124 200 MB DIV 42 70 83 82 88 116 120 127 163 121 88 78 103 98 82 63 20 700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -3 -5 -6 -4 -6 -6 -2 0 7 9 9 12 15 19 LAND (KM) 1787 1876 1970 2059 2146 2288 2393 2482 2551 2489 2315 2146 1985 1842 1752 1706 1673 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.2 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.7 13.9 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.6 122.8 124.1 125.3 127.3 128.9 130.4 131.7 133.0 134.3 135.5 136.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 37 31 33 28 22 18 18 18 18 23 29 31 26 18 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 23. 28. 30. 30. 31. 26. 23. 21. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 11. 17. 30. 42. 55. 64. 71. 74. 74. 74. 68. 63. 60. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 120.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.95 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.76 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.59 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.77 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.28 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 3.0 to 94.0 0.37 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 64% is 13.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 27.6% 20.3% 20.1% 0.0% 24.1% 35.6% 64.3% Logistic: 4.2% 23.3% 14.7% 6.3% 3.8% 16.6% 49.4% 57.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 5.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 3.4% 45.3% Consensus: 5.8% 18.8% 11.9% 8.9% 1.3% 13.6% 29.5% 55.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##