* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/14/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 34 36 37 37 32 33 25 25 24 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 5 1 1 0 1 3 1 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 240 248 249 242 237 235 243 224 226 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 150 148 144 142 143 145 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 42 42 43 45 44 43 45 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 37 24 13 3 -17 9 -8 -16 -12 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 13 10 16 4 30 0 0 -8 6 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 4 5 5 3 1 0 0 2 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 699 652 606 568 529 461 383 325 289 347 456 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.6 16.4 15.9 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.4 150.7 151.0 151.3 151.5 152.0 152.8 153.8 155.0 156.5 157.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 21 24 26 26 25 30 36 32 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 746 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. 32. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -15. -21. -25. -28. -30. -31. -30. -30. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -20. -26. -31. -36. -39. -40. -39. -38. -37. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 150.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.84 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##