* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/13/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 32 30 25 23 20 20 19 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 32 30 25 23 20 20 19 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 34 31 27 23 21 18 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 31 30 29 28 30 31 27 21 17 19 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 2 2 5 2 5 5 6 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 254 262 255 252 258 259 260 246 245 237 241 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 147 146 145 147 146 144 141 139 140 144 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 44 45 45 47 47 45 46 53 56 52 52 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 60 58 49 42 36 27 -3 -5 -9 -25 -25 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 16 11 19 29 30 44 22 36 15 -8 -5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 3 4 3 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1076 991 906 841 776 667 589 527 489 461 438 409 415 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 15.1 15.7 16.2 16.4 16.3 16.0 15.7 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 147.3 148.1 148.8 149.4 149.9 150.5 150.9 151.2 151.5 152.0 152.8 153.8 154.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 3 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 26 23 20 19 21 24 25 23 21 26 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -21. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -8. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -15. -20. -22. -25. -25. -26. -27. -30. -32. -32. -30. -30. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 13.0 147.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 363.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 34.4 to 2.3 0.31 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.25 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##