* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 55 57 58 58 56 51 49 46 42 41 40 41 41 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 55 57 58 58 56 51 49 46 42 41 40 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 56 58 59 59 60 58 55 50 44 38 33 29 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 7 2 2 6 9 11 18 20 27 27 21 19 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 1 0 1 1 2 0 0 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 150 145 166 207 231 185 255 277 263 242 236 225 237 229 220 206 207 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 157 155 152 143 142 141 143 143 138 133 131 131 133 138 142 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 53 54 52 50 51 51 54 55 54 51 54 52 50 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 14 13 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 8 8 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 7 10 16 30 40 48 54 50 41 31 6 -15 -45 -38 -40 -17 9 200 MB DIV 11 13 12 15 24 20 13 23 12 36 66 47 17 5 18 -2 -7 700-850 TADV 6 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 0 -1 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 2005 1897 1789 1698 1609 1468 1353 1251 1160 1091 1062 1069 1077 1077 1069 1048 1042 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.8 13.3 14.2 15.3 16.4 17.4 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.9 139.0 140.0 140.9 141.8 143.2 144.2 145.0 145.4 145.5 145.3 144.9 144.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 6 5 4 1 1 4 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 19 20 20 21 28 23 16 14 11 8 9 9 8 10 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 6. 4. 1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.7 137.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 11.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.79 9.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.26 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.54 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 6.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.17 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.59 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.2% 44.7% 42.2% 32.5% 20.8% 48.3% 50.8% 30.1% Logistic: 19.6% 47.4% 37.8% 30.8% 22.1% 43.9% 34.9% 21.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 18.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.7% 1.4% 2.2% 0.4% Consensus: 12.8% 36.7% 27.1% 21.2% 14.6% 31.2% 29.3% 17.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##