* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 45 51 57 63 62 63 60 61 58 56 55 49 44 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 45 51 57 63 62 63 60 61 58 56 55 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 45 49 53 54 55 54 52 48 44 39 34 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 4 6 2 5 7 10 12 17 23 26 27 27 25 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -5 -2 0 -1 -1 5 8 4 2 3 0 3 5 2 SHEAR DIR 126 146 165 161 177 238 222 251 267 262 237 230 207 216 220 224 223 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.4 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.0 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 156 157 156 148 142 142 142 146 144 137 137 133 131 130 130 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 61 57 55 54 54 52 48 49 51 53 53 49 45 42 40 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 14 16 18 17 19 17 20 18 19 19 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -7 4 13 21 43 54 63 56 58 47 19 -1 -14 -13 -6 2 200 MB DIV 17 18 21 19 21 28 39 26 45 42 51 77 82 66 41 30 4 700-850 TADV 2 3 6 5 2 0 0 0 -1 0 3 8 7 8 4 -1 -11 LAND (KM) 2220 2091 1962 1851 1741 1563 1420 1314 1232 1169 1167 1237 1363 1516 1664 1793 1936 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.6 14.7 16.0 17.7 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.8 137.1 138.3 139.4 140.5 142.3 143.6 144.5 145.0 145.0 144.4 143.2 141.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 11 10 8 5 5 5 6 9 10 9 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 19 17 18 19 19 24 27 19 16 13 14 23 10 9 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 28. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. -8. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 10. 8. 10. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 22. 28. 27. 28. 25. 26. 23. 22. 20. 14. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.5 135.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.88 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.68 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.28 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.66 -3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.49 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.19 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.54 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 27.4% 19.6% 19.5% 13.4% 20.9% 30.3% 37.3% Logistic: 6.9% 32.5% 19.3% 11.7% 10.4% 27.2% 42.5% 41.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 12.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% 1.2% 5.1% 0.7% Consensus: 6.7% 24.1% 13.2% 10.4% 8.0% 16.5% 25.9% 26.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/10/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##