* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 49 40 31 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 49 40 31 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 51 42 35 30 20 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 45 50 58 55 22 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 9 4 -2 -5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 221 226 219 213 212 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.2 20.5 19.5 17.3 14.3 11.8 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 92 75 70 70 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -49.2 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 1.4 0.3 0.2 1.6 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 50 58 69 73 79 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 20 19 15 15 17 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 96 130 212 196 178 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 105 157 172 200 115 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 26 -37 -14 83 -69 -43 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1774 1421 1155 930 599 271 -241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 37.0 40.9 45.2 49.5 55.6 61.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.0 140.1 138.2 137.5 136.8 138.6 140.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 35 42 42 43 37 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 28 CX,CY: 10/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. -22. -25. -28. -31. -34. -39. -44. -48. -53. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -12. -29. -47. -60. -65. -71. -79. -88.-101.-109. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 9. 16. 23. 26. 26. 23. 17. 7. 2. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -17. -22. -24. -25. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -29. -32. -35. -47. -56. -68. -83. -99.-112.-128.-153.-175.-198.-210. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 33.0 142.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.08 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 137.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 230.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.96 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 34.4 to 2.3 999.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING