* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 52 41 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 52 41 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 53 43 36 29 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 48 51 54 57 64 53 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 10 6 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 219 223 228 220 197 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 21.9 20.5 19.6 17.3 13.3 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 89 75 70 69 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -49.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 2.2 1.3 0.4 -0.3 0.7 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 49 56 63 68 76 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 27 27 27 30 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 72 103 131 206 151 183 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 71 106 152 153 133 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 4 10 106 85 -47 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1646 1710 1403 1187 917 430 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.0 34.4 37.7 41.5 45.3 52.2 59.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.1 142.2 140.2 138.8 137.4 137.1 136.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 37 38 39 37 35 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 31 CX,CY: 8/ 30 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -23. -27. -30. -33. -37. -41. -46. -50. -55. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -20. -41. -63. -80. -87. -94.-104.-116.-131.-140. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 21. 21. 19. 15. 9. 6. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. 1. -18. -24. -27. -27. -27. -25. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -13. -24. -32. -39. -43. -67. -80. -97.-118.-136.-149.-164.-185.-204.-225.-235. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 31.0 144.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 54.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.2 -30.0 to 145.0 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##