* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 61 49 37 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 61 49 37 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 63 52 42 34 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 42 50 52 58 62 54 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 8 8 3 3 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 210 218 217 218 213 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 22.7 21.6 20.2 18.4 13.8 9.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 97 86 72 70 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.4 -50.2 -52.7 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 2.1 2.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 52 59 66 75 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 28 28 32 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 74 68 82 112 101 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 60 78 134 158 124 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 30 9 23 54 98 77 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1408 1760 1654 1358 1109 343 -397 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 32.1 35.4 39.1 42.7 51.0 59.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 145.2 143.7 142.1 140.1 138.1 133.8 129.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 34 36 38 40 42 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 33 CX,CY: 9/ 32 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -9. -14. -22. -28. -32. -37. -40. -44. -49. -53. -57. -62. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -24. -43. -63. -78. -85. -93.-103.-115.-128.-136. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 9. 13. 16. 17. 16. 14. 11. 11. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. 1. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -7. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -14. -26. -38. -47. -53. -62. -70. -85.-104.-121.-133.-146.-164.-181.-198.-205. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 28.8 145.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.7 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##