* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 66 62 58 44 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 66 62 58 44 34 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 69 65 60 55 45 38 32 28 27 27 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 26 34 37 42 50 50 40 41 42 42 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 8 7 14 13 6 0 0 0 0 6 9 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 236 244 250 251 270 282 288 276 263 245 268 316 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 23.6 20.3 21.4 20.3 18.0 17.1 17.1 16.1 16.0 15.5 14.9 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 101 86 90 86 79 75 74 71 70 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 92 80 84 80 74 70 68 67 65 64 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.8 -51.3 -51.9 -52.9 -52.7 -54.1 -56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 44 43 42 41 41 39 34 25 26 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 40 40 40 35 34 32 29 27 28 27 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 77 89 94 118 149 144 135 91 89 84 -26 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 59 42 42 58 32 5 9 10 11 2 -19 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 -11 19 50 20 61 36 29 19 -7 -39 -59 -54 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 795 713 739 903 1130 1653 1399 1086 826 583 421 314 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.6 40.4 41.2 41.9 42.5 43.5 44.6 45.8 46.8 47.6 48.2 48.8 49.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.9 51.4 47.9 44.0 40.1 32.4 26.4 22.2 18.4 15.0 12.5 10.9 9.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 28 29 30 29 26 19 15 13 10 8 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 25 CX,CY: 23/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -15. -22. -29. -35. -39. -44. -48. -52. -53. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -23. -27. -29. -33. -35. -37. -42. -46. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -12. -16. -16. -18. -31. -30. -29. -28. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -12. -25. -36. -47. -58. -67. -72. -76. -92. -97.-100.-102.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 39.6 54.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/07/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 66 62 58 44 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 66 62 58 44 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 62 58 44 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 56 42 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT