* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 75 75 71 65 54 40 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 75 75 71 65 54 40 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 69 71 72 71 65 54 42 31 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 10 15 17 22 32 36 45 69 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 5 5 5 2 2 8 17 8 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 48 53 126 172 207 210 231 224 229 228 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.3 26.7 26.1 24.3 21.3 19.2 18.0 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 146 140 135 130 112 81 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 -51.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 67 59 45 40 40 43 56 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 27 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 123 148 154 126 98 31 4 -16 -29 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 40 64 71 61 60 29 21 73 109 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -11 -5 5 -11 -11 -53 -77 69 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 575 558 574 616 711 1080 1670 1369 798 387 -139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 16.0 16.9 18.4 19.9 24.2 29.4 34.8 40.1 45.1 50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.9 151.0 150.1 149.0 148.0 145.6 142.3 138.2 133.7 129.0 124.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 18 21 27 31 32 31 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 22 29 25 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -4. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -29. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -29. -52. -57. -62. -68. -75. -85. -90. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 10. 6. -0. -11. -25. -44. -70. -79. -89.-101.-115.-128.-137. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.1 151.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.44 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 218.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.88 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 22.5% 31.9% 9.8% 8.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 9.0% 16.3% 4.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##