* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 68 68 65 55 43 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 69 68 68 65 55 43 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 69 68 67 62 52 43 36 30 27 28 31 35 39 41 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 23 27 34 45 50 46 39 33 32 24 9 8 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 15 12 9 12 6 1 -1 1 2 2 -3 2 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 229 230 234 238 253 269 285 290 276 249 226 232 319 311 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.1 26.0 23.7 20.2 20.5 18.1 16.7 17.0 16.1 15.6 15.1 14.9 14.6 14.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 119 119 102 86 87 79 75 74 71 69 67 66 65 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 107 93 80 80 74 70 69 66 65 63 62 61 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -50.8 -51.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -54.2 -54.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.8 2.8 2.8 1.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 56 53 51 49 43 38 41 45 47 41 36 35 39 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 37 39 41 42 40 37 37 33 29 29 30 29 29 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 87 80 78 95 134 158 153 142 107 108 90 84 53 40 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 25 76 54 39 33 35 21 14 9 10 6 -12 -18 -33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 8 11 9 18 26 25 33 44 31 6 -28 -24 -1 -14 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 756 783 818 739 759 1125 1598 1439 1073 811 561 346 221 183 190 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.9 38.7 39.4 40.2 40.9 42.2 43.4 44.8 45.9 47.0 48.4 50.0 50.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.4 57.7 55.0 51.6 48.1 40.4 33.2 26.9 22.0 18.4 15.8 14.0 12.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 22 25 27 28 28 26 21 16 12 10 8 5 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 15 CX,CY: 12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. -24. -30. -35. -40. -44. -49. -51. -53. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -19. -23. -24. -25. -27. -27. -27. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. -1. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -1. -7. -13. -15. -13. -16. -16. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -5. -15. -27. -35. -46. -56. -60. -61. -62. -63. -72. -75. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 37.9 60.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 384.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 69 68 68 65 55 43 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 68 65 55 43 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 63 53 41 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 47 35 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT