* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 75 76 76 69 58 46 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 75 76 76 69 58 46 35 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 76 77 75 63 52 42 36 31 30 33 37 40 43 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 22 22 24 36 48 43 36 36 36 37 24 9 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 8 14 15 12 6 4 0 2 2 2 -2 4 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 249 237 235 236 246 261 275 298 293 273 247 229 262 322 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.1 25.9 23.6 21.6 19.5 17.7 17.6 16.1 16.7 16.0 15.3 15.3 14.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 119 118 101 91 83 78 75 70 71 70 69 69 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 109 106 106 92 85 78 73 69 66 66 65 65 64 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -50.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.2 2.8 2.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 51 49 45 43 41 45 46 46 40 34 41 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 36 39 41 42 39 36 33 30 27 30 34 33 29 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 67 77 62 78 106 145 158 134 124 105 125 145 167 183 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 39 19 75 82 37 25 20 10 13 4 -2 -4 -14 -5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 31 12 8 2 4 19 0 32 47 29 12 -28 -28 -5 18 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 767 786 784 813 749 967 1449 1551 1134 891 709 551 365 240 72 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.9 38.7 39.4 40.1 41.4 42.6 44.1 45.1 45.6 46.4 47.4 48.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 59.8 57.5 54.3 51.2 43.5 35.7 28.3 23.0 19.7 16.7 13.9 11.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 23 25 28 29 29 24 16 11 11 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 13 CX,CY: 9/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -26. -33. -38. -43. -48. -53. -55. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. -22. -26. -27. -27. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -9. -13. -10. -6. -7. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. -6. -17. -29. -40. -52. -61. -62. -59. -60. -66. -68. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 37.1 62.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 5( 14) 3( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 75 75 76 76 69 58 46 35 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 74 75 75 68 57 45 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 72 65 54 42 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 58 47 35 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT