* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 74 74 73 68 59 46 34 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 74 74 73 68 59 46 34 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 75 76 77 68 55 44 35 30 27 28 31 35 37 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 21 22 27 38 50 48 44 39 40 32 15 17 19 22 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 5 10 15 8 7 7 2 1 0 -5 -2 -1 6 6 6 SHEAR DIR 232 244 235 227 234 236 251 264 283 288 282 259 246 253 294 300 308 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.3 26.0 20.2 20.5 18.0 17.2 17.6 15.8 15.9 15.4 14.4 12.6 12.1 10.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 123 124 121 118 85 86 78 75 74 71 71 70 69 68 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 107 109 107 106 80 80 73 70 69 66 66 66 66 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -50.7 -51.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 -53.7 -55.3 -55.7 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.3 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 52 53 54 52 45 40 37 38 43 51 45 40 42 42 46 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 34 36 39 40 44 43 40 37 32 29 29 31 28 21 19 13 850 MB ENV VOR 73 64 75 66 69 91 122 137 139 129 100 114 116 125 36 -47 -54 200 MB DIV 5 17 53 53 75 46 38 26 4 3 7 8 -5 -15 -11 -9 -44 700-850 TADV 14 21 7 8 9 -5 9 -1 22 24 28 22 -15 -14 -4 26 44 LAND (KM) 809 774 777 791 803 781 1132 1601 1478 1162 911 649 373 171 182 304 463 LAT (DEG N) 36.4 37.2 38.0 38.8 39.5 40.9 42.2 43.5 44.5 45.4 46.4 47.6 49.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.4 61.6 59.8 57.1 54.5 47.6 40.3 33.1 27.4 23.3 19.6 16.3 14.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 19 22 24 28 27 24 19 14 13 12 13 14 16 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 12 CX,CY: 7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 662 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -11. -18. -25. -32. -37. -42. -46. -51. -54. -56. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -23. -26. -28. -28. -29. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 2. -2. -10. -15. -16. -14. -18. -26. -28. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -7. -16. -29. -41. -54. -63. -67. -65. -70. -78. -81. -88. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 36.4 63.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.24 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.69 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 413.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.02 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 11.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.6% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/06/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 4( 13) 3( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 74 74 73 68 59 46 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 74 74 73 68 59 46 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 70 65 56 43 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 59 50 37 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT