* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 74 74 75 72 69 57 47 35 21 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 75 74 74 75 72 69 57 47 35 21 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 75 75 76 77 76 63 53 44 35 30 30 30 26 22 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 19 18 20 30 38 51 49 46 49 54 46 39 37 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 5 9 10 13 8 4 2 0 2 0 14 12 9 9 SHEAR DIR 213 225 248 246 227 240 251 264 277 285 280 254 251 277 295 303 326 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.3 23.4 22.2 19.4 18.4 18.8 17.3 17.1 17.1 17.3 17.3 17.5 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 123 123 121 99 93 82 79 78 73 71 70 69 69 69 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 104 107 108 107 91 86 77 73 72 68 66 64 63 63 63 63 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.2 -50.3 -50.7 -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -53.0 -55.2 -56.8 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 52 55 56 57 51 44 39 37 39 40 30 24 24 30 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 33 36 38 41 44 42 41 38 33 34 40 32 23 17 10 850 MB ENV VOR 91 79 80 81 87 90 118 157 171 172 180 163 34 0 -40 -30 -38 200 MB DIV 15 8 23 39 49 67 48 32 4 1 9 8 5 -8 -42 -42 -63 700-850 TADV 10 4 23 18 6 5 29 0 20 7 0 -36 -87 -64 -23 -9 -27 LAND (KM) 854 836 788 817 808 785 974 1402 1726 1271 935 722 580 493 428 376 329 LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.3 37.1 37.9 38.6 39.8 40.9 41.9 42.8 43.6 44.2 44.7 45.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.3 62.9 61.5 59.3 57.1 51.0 44.0 36.8 30.3 24.8 20.6 17.8 15.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 16 19 21 26 27 26 22 18 13 9 6 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 5 8 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -17. -23. -29. -34. -39. -44. -49. -52. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -24. -29. -34. -38. -40. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 6. 5. 1. -8. -6. 0. -10. -21. -28. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. -3. -6. -18. -28. -40. -54. -59. -58. -73. -86. -94.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 35.4 64.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.39 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.67 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 400.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.47 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 13.1% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 4.3% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.8% 4.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 5( 10) 5( 14) 4( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 75 74 74 75 72 69 57 47 35 21 16 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 73 74 71 68 56 46 34 20 15 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 71 72 69 66 54 44 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 63 60 48 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT