* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 69 68 68 66 65 58 44 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 71 69 68 68 66 65 58 44 30 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 70 67 66 66 69 68 58 46 36 30 26 24 27 31 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 10 11 17 20 22 34 46 49 48 44 52 56 53 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 3 3 0 6 4 8 1 -3 0 0 -6 -8 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 232 203 230 247 229 241 246 263 274 305 307 296 282 275 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.3 24.1 21.1 18.9 17.3 17.3 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 121 121 123 121 104 89 82 77 75 71 70 71 72 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 102 103 104 107 108 96 83 77 72 70 66 65 66 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.1 -50.5 -50.9 -50.6 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -51.7 -52.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 1.4 1.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 53 53 56 54 48 41 43 45 51 60 61 43 39 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 35 34 36 36 40 41 36 31 25 22 18 23 29 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 103 85 76 73 82 81 108 117 124 107 85 113 136 155 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 16 30 23 19 36 49 44 19 15 -14 -9 8 4 -10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 27 21 15 14 23 5 -5 -18 -5 2 25 30 20 -15 -43 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 972 922 870 840 791 805 746 998 1482 1494 1064 810 625 436 246 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.5 35.4 36.3 37.1 38.7 40.3 41.8 43.2 44.4 45.5 46.5 46.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.4 64.7 64.0 62.7 61.4 56.9 50.3 42.6 34.9 27.6 22.0 18.1 15.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 16 23 29 29 28 24 17 12 9 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 3 5 5 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -36. -41. -46. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -15. -18. -21. -26. -32. -38. -40. -43. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 3. -5. -13. -22. -28. -33. -25. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -17. -31. -45. -58. -69. -82. -82. -78. -81. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 33.6 65.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.40 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.1 95.0 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 3( 8) 3( 11) 3( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 71 69 68 68 66 65 58 44 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 72 71 71 69 68 61 47 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 70 68 67 60 46 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 65 63 62 55 41 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT