* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 50 55 60 59 57 55 50 46 44 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 47 50 55 60 59 57 55 50 46 44 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 45 46 49 51 53 52 48 42 36 33 29 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 14 11 11 12 20 22 22 15 15 15 46 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 4 1 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 2 4 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 88 78 83 91 114 174 200 205 219 232 252 259 242 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.4 27.6 27.0 26.0 25.8 25.1 24.7 20.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 148 146 145 144 137 139 134 124 122 115 118 71 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.1 -50.6 -50.2 -50.6 -50.4 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 73 75 75 75 70 64 62 61 59 56 47 37 59 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 21 22 23 22 22 24 21 19 19 14 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 74 70 75 79 108 139 127 99 65 28 -7 -38 -22 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 60 64 70 60 43 53 74 50 60 11 37 -3 -2 75 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 2 3 1 -5 -1 0 3 3 -1 -10 -38 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 598 567 537 507 481 441 427 456 525 653 824 1038 1265 1054 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.7 19.1 20.9 22.9 25.0 27.1 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.8 154.7 154.6 154.3 154.0 153.1 152.0 150.9 149.8 148.7 147.7 146.6 145.5 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 6 7 7 8 10 11 11 12 38 64 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 25 26 26 26 35 22 27 18 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 14. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 6. 3. -0. -1. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 19. 17. 15. 10. 6. 4. -11. -12. -13. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.6 154.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 17.2 to 1.6 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.51 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.0 to -2.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.9% 7.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 2.3% 6.5% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 9.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 2.8% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##